A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
